Sunday, March 11, 2007

Deep Throat Guy vs. Hat Lady...

... and according to my good friend Leftwing Cracker, this one isn't the shoo-in we believed it would be.

...The Goopers have put on a stronger campaign than expected, and there have been more early votes from Republican areas than OUR area. It is no longer unthinkable to suggest that the term SENATOR LARRY PARRISH could be heard in the most Democratic and liberal Senate district in Tennessee.

Why? As much as we all love Beverly Marrero, she is at best a mediocre campaigner, and it has seemed since the primary that many in her camp thought that her name would carry her through, just as it has in the smaller (and more liberal) District 89, where no Republican has reigned since 1972...

I'd love to disagree with him, but I simply cannot. Frankly, with as little election-related activity as there is in my area (And I like in District 30), if my friend and neighbor Sarah hadn't emailed me a reminder last week, I would have indeed forgotten that there was an election going on.

That's not to say this is the first time I've been pessimistic about Marrero's chances. I didn't really think she was running to win during the primary, and when David Upton called me the week before the election, I told him as much. Of course, the day after the election, with Marrero pulling in three times as many votes as Robert Spence, he called me to say "I told you so".

The name of the game in a special election is voter turnout. In the Senate District 29 special election, Republican Terry Roland pulled off an upset over Democrat Ophelia Ford (And I say he beat her because the cemetary vote and relatives voting from outside the district helped push her over the top) by driving turnout among the tiny Republican base in a senate district with a roughly 85% Democratic baseline vote. When they faced off again, there were bigger races to draw out voters, and Ophelia won handily.

There is no such luxury this Tuesday. This race IS the top of the ticket.

Perhaps it was Spence's extensive advertising that hurt him so badly in the primary. One couldn't drive past a bus stop without seeing some reminder that there was an election going on, and it reminded the people that opposed him to vote as much as it reminded his supporters to vote.

With Larry Parrish, we're not seeing that. I've seen two yard signs for him on Poplar. I saw one for Marrero as well, but I'm a little fuzzy on where I saw it.

If it's base vs. base with no actual effort to draw out regular voters, this could be a close one indeed. Larry Parrish is known for one thing--- He prosecuted the cast and crew of the porn movie "Deep Throat" for obscenity charges in Memphis, which worked against us as we tried to convince the rest of the nation that we weren't a city of ignorant, theocratic idiots.

Can he get enough traction from the theocrats to put him in the Senate? If none of the liberals show up... Maybe.

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